Buffalo Bills and Success: What are the odds?

What are the odds the Bills have success this season? Well, the cynical answer is: not very likely at all. 

It’s been 12 years since the Bills made the playoffs so it’s hard to blame a fan for becoming jaded. But cynicism isn’t the mood of the the Bills fan base right now. In fact, it’s the exact opposite. 
If you listen to WGR or read the forums, Bills fans are nearly giddy about the upcoming season. Of course, it’s because the Bills actually had a productive off-season. They re-signed Stevie Johnson. They re-signed Fred Jackson. And they signed the biggest free agent on the market – Mario Williams. 
As a result, many Bills fans are predicting the long and painful playoff drought will end this year. But let’s take a look at what the cold, hard, objective oddsmakers are saying about the likelihood the Bills will have a successful season. After all, they’re taking real risk with real money by putting up lines so their opinion should carry real weight. 
Win Total Odds
A couple months ago, oddsmakers opened the over/under on the Bills regular season win total at 6.5. That line didn’t last long. As a result of more money being bet on the over, the line has shifted all the way up to 8. So, right now, the betting market is indicating the Bills are likely to finish the season at 8-8. 
Odds to Win AFC East 
What about the odds that the Bills win the AFC East? Well, that would be an upset. At Caesars sports book, the Bills are 9 to 1 to win the AFC East. The Patriots, of course, are heavily favored at 1 to 5 while the Jets are second favorite at 4 to 1. The Dolphins are likely to finish last as they’re odds to win the division are 10 to 1. 
Odds to Make the Playoffs
The Bills are an underdog to make the playoffs as well. At 5 Dimes, one of the largest offshore sports books, the Bills are +170 to make the playoffs. That means if you were to bet $100 on the Bills to make the playoffs, you’d win $170. These odds imply the Bills have a 37% chance of making the playoffs. 
Odds to Win the AFC Conference 
Can you imagine if the Bills took us all back to the glory days and won the AFC Conference and made the Super Bowl? Yes, it’s hard to imagine. But if you think it can happen, you can get 23 to 1 odds at LVH sports book, one of the premier sports books in Las Vegas. Now, the odds vary from book to book, of course. In some places, the Bills are as low as 8 to 1 and at other shops, the Bills are as high as 40 to 1. 
Odds to Win the Super Bowl 
But let’s take a look at the odds on the Holy Grail. Yea, the Super Bowl. Right now, the Bills are 50 to 1 longshots to shock the world and win the Super Bowl. So, if you think the unthinkable can happen, you can turn a $100 bet into $5,000. Do you feel lucky? 

About the author  ⁄ bluedevil

26 comments
Tom
Tom

yea that where the Pro Football Hall of Fame is. The research and preservation center is there with it.

grad94
grad94

on a semi-related note, did everyone see the article in the news today about ralph wilson endowing a pro football "research and preservation center?"

in canton, ohio. why oh why couldn't he have done it here in buffalo where he made that $2.5 million?

grad94
grad94

on a semi-related note, did everyone see the article in the news today about ralph wilson endowing a pro football "research and preservation center?"

in canton, ohio. why oh why couldn't he have done it here in buffalo where he made that $2.5 million?

Urban Cowboy
Urban Cowboy

Most studies don't apply to the bills because we have an old, payed for, stadium. Dallas may be a much larger city but being on the hook for 1.3 billion is much more then 150 million.

Second, your argument has no meaning.... From what I seem to understand your saying that because you are not a fan of football, the bills do not deserve money that goes to projects you are a "fan" of. It's invalid and ultimately very narrow minded.

I understand not wanting to give tax money to businesses and private investment but that is all the government does. Really.... Find me one example where the government spends money without someone's personal benefit: Statler.....croce, lafayette....termini, children's hospital....kaleida, ....even road construction is given to the lowest private bidder, who turns a profit.

If you don't think the government should be giving tax money to private investors then show some consistency and admit that it does happen in our restoration of buildings in which private owners will turn a profit.

I agree the bills turn a profit, but so do all these examples. I agree with you that it does seem really stupid, but this is a national issue and why should we let something that happens everyday everywhere in America lead to the demise of something that greatly adds to the authenticity of our city.

I'm with you for not letting rich private ownership take advantage of public money, but seriously, how will this stance help buffalo. It's big picture I care about.

Are you opposed to the buffalo billion.... For attracting jobs to the area... Because your argument consistency depends on you telling Cuomo and all the potential jobs to please leave and go somewhere else. Sometimes, for the benefit of the community, one must sacrifice their principles.

Urban Cowboy
Urban Cowboy

Most studies don't apply to the bills because we have an old, payed for, stadium. Dallas may be a much larger city but being on the hook for 1.3 billion is much more then 150 million.

Second, your argument has no meaning.... From what I seem to understand your saying that because you are not a fan of football, the bills do not deserve money that goes to projects you are a "fan" of. It's invalid and ultimately very narrow minded.

I understand not wanting to give tax money to businesses and private investment but that is all the government does. Really.... Find me one example where the government spends money without someone's personal benefit: Statler.....croce, lafayette....termini, children's hospital....kaleida, ....even road construction is given to the lowest private bidder, who turns a profit.

If you don't think the government should be giving tax money to private investors then show some consistency and admit that it does happen in our restoration of buildings in which private owners will turn a profit.

I agree the bills turn a profit, but so do all these examples. I agree with you that it does seem really stupid, but this is a national issue and why should we let something that happens everyday everywhere in America lead to the demise of something that greatly adds to the authenticity of our city.

I'm with you for not letting rich private ownership take advantage of public money, but seriously, how will this stance help buffalo. It's big picture I care about.

Are you opposed to the buffalo billion.... For attracting jobs to the area... Because your argument consistency depends on you telling Cuomo and all the potential jobs to please leave and go somewhere else. Sometimes, for the benefit of the community, one must sacrifice their principles.

Up and coming
Up and coming

Marc Croce has more than enough money to pay his own way, they have no excuse for asking for government handouts.

Carl Paladino has more than enough money to pay his own way, they have no excuse for asking for government handouts.

Rocco Termini has more than enough money to pay his own way, they have no excuse for asking for government handouts.

Black Rock Lifer
Black Rock Lifer

They are apples and oranges, Historic Tax Credits are intended to add value, increase the tax base, and encourage investment in the community. Also they only apply to distressed census tracts where projects might not have a positive ROI without the credits.

The Bills are a very profitable business monopoly that apparently has deep pockets, they have no problem offering players multi-million dollar contracts and providing a huge greturn to their owner. Funny that they can't seem to find the money for their own infrastructure and overhead.

Black Rock Lifer
Black Rock Lifer

They are apples and oranges, Historic Tax Credits are intended to add value, increase the tax base, and encourage investment in the community. Also they only apply to distressed census tracts where projects might not have a positive ROI without the credits.

The Bills are a very profitable business monopoly that apparently has deep pockets, they have no problem offering players multi-million dollar contracts and providing a huge greturn to their owner. Funny that they can't seem to find the money for their own infrastructure and overhead.

Black Rock Lifer
Black Rock Lifer

Of course most studies say otherwise, for example here is an overview of 'Sports, Jobs, and Taxes', "The primary conclusions are that sports teams and stadiums are not a source of local economic growth and employment. The size of the net subsidy exceeds the financial benefit, cities are probably willing to subsidize sports teams because of the intense popularity of sports among a substatial population of voters and businesses and the leverage that teams enjoy from the monopoly position of professional sports leagues".

You sound like a fan, that's fine but I am not. Government has no business providing huge subsidies for a game that turns huge profits for the players and owners. The Bills have more than enough revenue to pay their own way, they have no excuse for asking for government handouts.

Black Rock Lifer
Black Rock Lifer

Of course most studies say otherwise, for example here is an overview of 'Sports, Jobs, and Taxes', "The primary conclusions are that sports teams and stadiums are not a source of local economic growth and employment. The size of the net subsidy exceeds the financial benefit, cities are probably willing to subsidize sports teams because of the intense popularity of sports among a substatial population of voters and businesses and the leverage that teams enjoy from the monopoly position of professional sports leagues".

You sound like a fan, that's fine but I am not. Government has no business providing huge subsidies for a game that turns huge profits for the players and owners. The Bills have more than enough revenue to pay their own way, they have no excuse for asking for government handouts.

Up and coming
Up and coming

The real figure is 150 million, but I guess that doesnt matter in the BRO make stuff up as you go land. How many projects throughout NY State have used HTC? I bet a whole lot. I'm not arguing that the HTC program is a bad idea. In fact I think it's great, but don't defend one millionaires handout while villafying another.

Up and coming
Up and coming

The real figure is 150 million, but I guess that doesnt matter in the BRO make stuff up as you go land. How many projects throughout NY State have used HTC? I bet a whole lot. I'm not arguing that the HTC program is a bad idea. In fact I think it's great, but don't defend one millionaires handout while villafying another.

Up and coming
Up and coming

You took the words right out of my mouth. Buffalo is known for, snow, wings and the Bills. When the Bills win a SuperBowl the positive PR and quality of life for its residents will far outway the 150 million dollar investment.

Up and coming
Up and coming

You took the words right out of my mouth. Buffalo is known for, snow, wings and the Bills. When the Bills win a SuperBowl the positive PR and quality of life for its residents will far outway the 150 million dollar investment.

Urban Cowboy
Urban Cowboy

I don't want to get into a huge brawl over the Bills but here are some facts:

1) The team brings in over 20 million per year in tax revenue alone. This figure does not contain any money made from all of the local purchases and money collected from those expenses. If the Bills and nfl contribute even fifty million to the deal and sign a 10 year lease, then the team will generate 50 million dollars GAIN in just payroll and ticket sales tax. Again, this does not included the local spending, air traffic, and hotel figures.

2) The NFL is the biggest advertising agency in the world. Some subsidizing of the team must be seen as contributing to the area. In Europe, an average person can find Buffalo on a map, not Rochester. Why is that? I find it hard to beleive that anyone from this area could deny that the Bills contribute in more ways then just for our entertainment.

The Bills really aren't "stealing" very much from us. They provide entertainment, deepen the sense of community, and provide a stage to continue to sell our great area to the world. Many other cities know this and are just waiting in the shadows. If we lose the Bills, we will truly have squandered one of the most valuable resources we have in our community.

Urban Cowboy
Urban Cowboy

I don't want to get into a huge brawl over the Bills but here are some facts:

1) The team brings in over 20 million per year in tax revenue alone. This figure does not contain any money made from all of the local purchases and money collected from those expenses. If the Bills and nfl contribute even fifty million to the deal and sign a 10 year lease, then the team will generate 50 million dollars GAIN in just payroll and ticket sales tax. Again, this does not included the local spending, air traffic, and hotel figures.

2) The NFL is the biggest advertising agency in the world. Some subsidizing of the team must be seen as contributing to the area. In Europe, an average person can find Buffalo on a map, not Rochester. Why is that? I find it hard to beleive that anyone from this area could deny that the Bills contribute in more ways then just for our entertainment.

The Bills really aren't "stealing" very much from us. They provide entertainment, deepen the sense of community, and provide a stage to continue to sell our great area to the world. Many other cities know this and are just waiting in the shadows. If we lose the Bills, we will truly have squandered one of the most valuable resources we have in our community.

Black Rock Lifer
Black Rock Lifer

Historic Tax Credits are capped at 20% of up to 5 million dollars on commercial properties, that's 1 million max. On residential the cap is 20% of 50K, or 10K.

The Bills are looking to extract 200 million or more from the taxpayers.

Black Rock Lifer
Black Rock Lifer

Historic Tax Credits are capped at 20% of up to 5 million dollars on commercial properties, that's 1 million max. On residential the cap is 20% of 50K, or 10K.

The Bills are looking to extract 200 million or more from the taxpayers.

bung
bung

Restoring a vacant historic building does way more good for the area than paying someone 10 million a year to play a game. Good chances that person will be gone in 1-3 years.

Up and coming
Up and coming

Tell that to each multi-million dollar developer that applys for historic tax credits.

Black Rock Lifer
Black Rock Lifer

Agree, I am tired of these parasites holding us hostage, time for sports teams and owners to pay their own way. Private for profit enterprises should not be feeding from the public trough, especially when they can come up with millions to pay their players.

bung
bung

Odds that Ralph Wilson is going to extort as much cash from Erie County as possible before the next owner does the same. 100%

PaulBuffalo
PaulBuffalo

Is that a local photo of the Seneca Casino gambling floor? :)

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