By Kyle Gunn-Taylor:
As the Bills took another shellacking at the hands of the San Diego Chargers on Sunday and were officially eliminated from the playoff hunt, it’s hard not to think they are one of the toughest NFL teams to watch.
With a no-name cast of characters and an uninspired brand of football, the Bills (5-8) are certainly in the running for a top-10 pick in April’s Draft.
It’s too early to project where the Bills will be seated in the draft order come April 26, 2012, but at this point there is little else to hang on to for a sullen and defeated club that is struggling through a 6-game losing streak.
If the losing continues through the final three games of the regular season, the Bills should be the proud holder of a pick worthy of one of college football’s top-10 talents.
Looking at the schedule ahead, the losing will most likely continue. The one reasonably winnable game is this weekend against the Miami Dolphins (4-9), who are the only division opponent behind the Bills in the standings.
Despite having the worst record in the AFC East, the Dolphins smashed the Bills 35-8 in their first meeting on November 20th at Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens. When the Dolphins come to Ralph Wilson Stadium Sunday, it can be said they will be trying to complete a divisional season sweep or jockey with the Bills for draft position.
After Miami, the Bills take on Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos on Christmas Eve, then finish the regular season on the road against the New England Patriots on New Year’s Day.
It’s safe to say playing Tebow on Jesus’ birthday wouldn’t bode well for an AFC Pro Bowl team, let alone the hapless Bills. Combine that with the Broncos 6-game tear where they are seemingly unstoppable, it may take the entire city of Buffalo taking a signature Tebow knee and praying in order for the Bills to pull out a win.
Since the Bills defeated the Patriots in September, the two teams have gone in completely opposite directions. The Bills have been decimated by injuries and are out of playoff contention, while the Patriots (10-3) have again risen to the top of the division and seem primed for another serious playoff run despite a porous defense.
History is also not on the Bills side as the Patriots have won 20 of the last 23 matchups against Buffalo since the turn of the century.
As many Bills fans resort to distancing themselves from their discouraging team, other more optimistic fans attempt to cling to anything positive. At this point in the season, the only bright light at the end of this dark tunnel is the NFL Draft and although April seems like an eternity away, why not start analyzing the players who the Bills may target?
Because they have so many glaring needs, it is difficult to narrow down what the Bills brass may have in mind, but assuming the Bills have a pick in the top-10 and all of these athletes declare themselves eligible, here are the prospects ESPN draft experts Mel Kiper and Todd McShay believe teams like the Bills should be targeting; Andrew Luck, QB Stanford, Matt Kalil, OT USC, Morris Claiborne, CB LSU, Trent Richardson, RB Alabama, Quinton Coples, DE North Carolina, Matt Barkley, QB USC, Jonathan Martin, OT Stanford, Dre Kirkpatrick, CB Alabama, Riley Reiff, OT Iowa and Melvin Ingram, DE South Carolina.
It’s about as much of a lock as there has ever been in the 76 years of the NFL Draft, that whatever team takes the podium with the first pick will select Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck. The Indianapolis Colts have cemented themselves as the clear front runner with an abysmal 0-13 record. However, there have been rumblings of the Colts moving the pick, because Luck will be so highly coveted.
There are several different ways the Bills can go about attacking their first round pick. With the likelihood that one of the top-3 quarterbacks will be there when the Bills draft they could look to grab a guy they can sit behind Ryan Fitzpatrick for the next few years and allow to develop into a franchise QB.
If USC star, Matt Barkley or the Heisman Trophy winner, Robert Griffin III are available when the Bills are on the clock it will be tough for them to pass up on an opportunity to pick a guy who could be a future star in a quarterback driven league.
As great of a plan as that seems, the Bills have so many needs that it may be more productive to address a position that is of a more pressing need and will produce a player that could make an immediate impact on the starting roster. The positions in the most need of revamping are; outside linebacker, cornerback, offensive line and wide receiver, not necessarily in that order.
Unfortunately for the Bills, this year’s class lacks a premier edge rusher like Denver Broncos Von Miller who was taken with the 2nd pick, just before Buffalo in the 2011 draft.
According to Scouts, Inc., the best pass rusher in this year’s draft is Quinton Coples from North Carolina. However, he is best suited to play as a 5-technique lineman, with his hand down in a 4-3 defensive scheme. With the Bills still transitioning to a base 3-4 scheme, Coples doesn’t necessarily fit.
The best outside linebacker prospect according to Scouts, Inc. is a ‘tweener’ from South Carolina named Melvin Ingram.
‘Tweener’ is a term coined by draft experts to label a guy who doesn’t quite have the measurables to play every down as a defensive end and doesn’t necessarily have the speed to play in coverage as a 3-4 outside linebacker. Despite Ingram having adequate size at 6-foot-two-inches and 279-pounds, he doesn’t have an elite burst off the edge that a top-10 explosive pass rusher would feature.
Another way to attack the draft board and how the Bills typically approach the draft is by taking the most talented player available when it is their turn to make a selection.
If that is the case, Alabama cornerback, Dre Kirkpatrick or Oklahoma State wide receiver, Justin Blackmon may be the top options available for the Bills come April.
Despite the lack of success the Bills have historically drafting skill players like wide receiver and defensive back early in the draft, these two prospects are guys that can step in and make an immediate impact on either side of the ball.
A great strategy that is never the sexiest, but is often how many of the NFL’s best teams’ approach the draft is to build a team from the trenches out. Taking an offensive or defensive lineman with the top pick can be risky (of course, there is no risk-free position), but with the Bills struggles stopping the run and maintaining health on the offensive line, there is a definite need at the position.
Last season, the Bills went lineman with the 3rd overall pick when they selected Alabama defensive lineman, Marcell Dareus. Historically, the Bills have an affinity for waiting until the later rounds to address the offensive line. They typically like to make projects of their offensive lineman, using late picks or sifting through undrafted free agents for raw, large bodied, cheaper solutions up front.
Should the Bills improve their play and muster up a few wins down the stretch, here are the next ten prospects the ESPN experts believe will be waiting to hear their names called between draft positions 11-20; Justin Blackmon, WR Oklahoma State, Robert Griffin III, QB Baylor, Luke Kuechly, ILB Boston College, Mark Barron S Alabama, Manti Te’o, ILB Notre Dame, Landry Jones, QB Oklahoma, Andre Branch, DE Clemson, David DeCastro, G Stanford, Courtney Upshaw, O
LB Alabama and Devon Still, DT Penn State.
LB Alabama and Devon Still, DT Penn State.
While it’s not quite appropriate to project where the Bills will draft or who they will target, it is what Bills fans are regularly relegated to at this point of the year when the playoff chase is over. So as Bills faithful sit and stew in the drudges of mediocrity, future stars await their opportunity to hear their name called. Hopefully, for the sake of Buffalo Bills fans, whoever they draft will bring back some of the Bills winning ways.
Resources
Patriots vs. Bills History – Patriots team website
Bills Roster – Bills team website
NFL Schedule – ESPN
NFL Standings – ESPN
NFL Draft Page – ESPN